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An Introduction to Strategies for Betting on Win, Lose or Draw Sports

game betting strategy A chess board

I want to share with you something very interesting about betting strategies. Of course you know that your betting strategy affects how much money you win, but did you know that with:

  • Exactly the same results
  • Exactly the same odds
  • Exactly the same bets
  • Exactly the same starting money

that two simple but slightly different strategies can be the difference between a small loss and a considerable profit?

In this article I am going to use examples to demonstrate how a simple change in betting strategy, with next to no extra effort, can do exactly this: Change a loss into a profit.

What is a Betting Strategy

When betting on sports everyone starts off with some money and a desire to go home with even more money, actually, the desire is to go home with so much money they will never need to work, cook or be nice to anyone ever again! - Ed: If you do win large, please be nice to everyone. Manners cost nothing.

In order to fulfil this objective there are some immediate decisions to be made:

  • How much do I bet?
  • When do I bet?
  • How often do I bet??
  • Which games do I bet on

How you answer these questions defines your strategy.

I want to impress upon you how important, and easy, it is to have a betting strategy that works for you. Your strategy should minimise your risk whilst making you the most money possible

Fortunately, in this article, we are not talking about game selection strategies (the fourth question) which can be hard work (unless you use our free Top Tips generated by our very own Intelligent Neural Network) we are simply talking about betting strategies,

But I Just Want To Have Fun - Go Away With Your Strategy Rategy

Well the best way to learn a strategy is to give betting a go and learn from your mistakes. Learn by experience. No need to spend time analysing facts, no need to worry about those silly questions above. Just shut your eyes, throw a dart and…….Win! Hooroay!

Unfortunately you can lose as well.

Most people learn the hard way. Novice gamblers are simply playing a game of luck where, yes they can win, but they can lose as well.

In most cases this beginners strategy ends up resembling something like:

  • How much do I bet? A significant proportion of my gambling pot
  • How often do I bet? One game at a time, that is, the next game

Lets call this The Luck Strategy

The Luck Strategy

The Luck Strategy can only end in one of 2 ways:

  1. The gambler never plays again - pretty boring scenario, but they do have their winnings to spend

  2. They lose everything

 

The Luck strategy A Photo of many dice all showing a 6

 

The Luck Strategy is great if you consider your stake payment for fun. It will increase your excitement during the game, but in the long term, your money will be gone.

So having fun is all well and good, but you pay for it.

Okay, What is a Simple Strategy To Win Me Some Money?

Great question! There are certainly a few simple strategies that can earn you some good money gambling and I’m going to explain one of them here by using an example.

Let's assume you have $100 to bet and there are 10 games coming up which you feel you know who the winner is going to be. Lovely, now it is time to place your bets, then wait for the games, collect your money and enjoy the weekend do what the rich people do.

You must know decide on the questions listed earlier, here they are again:

  • How much do I bet?
  • When do I bet?
  • How often do I bet?
  • Which games do I bet on?

Well we’ve answered the last question already. It’s the 10 games we identified. This could should be the Top Tips from Football in Cider for example.

But I want to show you a simple strategy that can make a lot more money than the Luck Strategy above:

Lets call this strategy The Safety in Numbers Strategy

The Safety in Numbers Strategy 

This Strategy has the following answers to our strategy questions:

  • How much do I bet? A small proportion of my pot, lets say one fifth of your pot

  • How often do I bet? Many games at a time, lets say 5

This is in contrast to the luck strategy

  • How much do I bet? Half my pot
  • How often do I bet? One game at a time

How much difference do you expect this small variation in your strategy will make to your bottom line?

 

safety in numbers photo of the word safety written using tiles surrounded by number tiles

Strategy Examples Will Make it Clear 

Let’s have a quick look using an example with 10 bets:

The first table lists 10 games that you bet on. Let's go through the columns to ensure we know what they mean:

The Result column states whether you won or lost your bet. So you won the first two bets!

The second column states the Odds you recieived from the bookmaker.

The third column shows how much money you had before the game took place. So you could choose to gamble up to this amount on the game, but as we stated already you will always choose half, and this is shown in the fourth column.

The fifth column lists how much money you have in your pocket before the game is played. If you lose, this is all you will have!

However, if you win, you will collect your winnings, which is equal to your stake multiplied by the Odds, and this is shown in the sixth column.

Finally the last column shows how much money you ended up with after the game. If you won the bet it will add your winnings to what was remaining in your pocket. If you lost then it will remain unchanged.

The result, whether you won or lost, we simply chose at random, we did however want to be fairly positive, so we were happy there were 6 wins and only 4 losses. Sounds good yeah!

With this (half your pot) approach the order is important as the size of your pot is determined by the results of the previous games. What is interesting in our random data is the the wins and losses turned out to be symmetrical!

An Example of The Luck Strategy

Now, spend a few minutes understanding this table below. A picture is worth a thousand words. A thousand words takes me about 20 minutes to read, so just a few spent in this table is going to be one of those worthwhile investments:

Result

Odds

Starting Money

Stake

Remaining Money

Winnings

End

Money

     

$100

     

W

1.6

$100

$50

$50

$80

$130

W

2.3

$130

$65

$65

$149.50

$214.50

L

1.57

$214.50

$100

$114.50

$0

$114.50

W

3.2

$114.50

$55

$59.50

$176

$235.50

L

2.2

$235.50

$120

$115.50

$0

$115.50

L

1.8

$115.50

$60

$55.50

$0

$55.50

W

1.41

$55.50

$30

$25.50

$42.30

$67.80

L

1.38

$67.80

$35

$32.80

$0

$32.80

W

1.9

$32.80

$15

$17.80

$28.50

$46.30

W

2.9

$46.30

$20

$26.30

$58

$84.30


What's the First thing that you notice?

That’s right, you made a loss. Dam. Bad luck!

Well actually it's not bad luck. It’s bad strategy.

An Example of The Safety in Numbers Strategy

Let us now use the same results, the same games, the same odds but instead change the amount we bet to be one fifth of our pot and bet 5 games at a time. This is the Safety in Numbers Strategy.

The columns are a subset of the one above so they shouldn't need explaining again.

There are now two tables, however, as we plan to make 10 bets in total, but 5 at a time. So the first table is the first batch of 5 where we split our original 100 into 5, and the second table will be the next batch of 5 where our stakes will be determined by dividing our winnings by 5. It's easier just to look at the table…..

Result

Odds

Stake

Winnings

   

$100

 

W

1.6

$20

$32

W

2.3

$20

$46

L

1.57

$20

$0

W

3.2

$20

$64

L

2.2

$20

$0

     

$142


Okay so we won $42 in addition to our $100 and now we have $142 to divide up, meaning we have 4 lots of $28 and one of stake of $30 to gamble with.

Result

Odds

Stake

Winnings

   

$142

 

L

1.8

$28

$0

W

1.41

$28

$39.48

L

1.38

$28

$0

W

1.9

$28

$53.20

W

2.9

$30

$87.00

     

$179.68


We just made a profit just short of 80% !!!

Compared with a loss of 15% in the first scenario.

 

What Just Happened? Is Your Maths Right?

My maths is right.

All we have done is reduced our exposure and risk whilst maintaining our leverage capacity.

You Have Done So Well To Avoid Big Words & Sound Clever … Until Now!

Ok, sorry, let's put it another way.

Inflammatory Risk

Is inflammatory too big a word? Ha ha - pun intended!! Cough cough

Look at the 3rd bet in the first table. We bet $100 on this bet. We lost it. In hindsight this was a silly thing to do. We lost half our money in just one game. However, we had just won the last 2 previous games, so we were confident and our emotions led us to believe we were on a roll.

Now look at the same bet in the The Safety in Numbers Strategy

We bet $20. We lost the $20, but it wasn't $100.

But What About When We Won Big! Doesn't That Even It Up?

Yes, and we did win big in the first scenario. In Bet 4 we put $55 at odds of 3.2 and won! This took our winnings to $235.50, the highest our winnings was at any time in either strategy! Now if, somehow we knew to stop there, we would be Winners. We would own the casino. We would be sailing on our yacht with all our friends and limitless free flowing - but very expensive - champagne.

Unfortunately the only reason to stop there is because your partner just walked in the room and told you to empty the bins. The truth is, there is no ‘Stop’ and take the winnings trigger in this strategy. Which means, you continue to bet whilst being egged on by the addictive, free flowing - but very moreish - adrenaline as a result of your enormous world conquering winnings.

Yet miserably you still end the night down by $15.

Managed Risk

In contrast the Safety in Numbers Strategy bets with a predetermined stake. The stake was decided upon well before the game and even before other games in the same batch. This means that the risk (the amount of stake we could lose) is the same even if we have lost or won money previously. Not only does this mean our risk has been managed early on, it means it was managed when we were in a stable frame of mind (probably, well at least we can assume you were if you remembered about Strategy)

How Small Should My Bets Be?

Another good question. In the example we suggested one fifth of your pot. However, in the real world we would recommend as little as a tenth, and equally, place this on batches of 10, not 1 or 2 ... But 10

When starting up a new account at Football in Cider it is not uncommon to use $1 bets to begin with. The bookies are more than happy to take these small bets online so don't feel embarrassed. This allows new account holders to watch and learn how their bets are going. Are they happy with Top Tips? Do they want to adjust Top Tips or maybe just bet on the EPL. As our records show Top Tips are by and far the most successful tips we publish, but the Safety in Numbers Strategy applies to any set of quality tips.

If you only have $10 in an account then place 10 individual $1 bets. If you are tempted to place to whole $10 on a dead cert, then assuming you do win, Stop. Accept you were lucky and go back to a winning strategy.

You Are Now a Winner

The most important point of this article was to make it clear that simply placing a significant proportion of your money on just a few games will mostly lead to you losing said money.

The next most important point was to demonstrate that many small bets with fixed stakes will normally result in more winnings than if you placed a few large variable ones. 

And so, as we come to a close, hopefully we have shown you something interesting. You already knew that your strategy affected how much money you won. Now you also know that with exactly the same results, the same odds, the same bets and the same starting money, a strategy of small bets placed on many bets at a time will yield significantly better profits than large bets on one or two games.

And what is also interesting is that this is just the beginning … There are so many simple strategies and techniques that can change a loss into profit. Let us know what you think about this on the forum… Thanks

 

world wide wealth A photo of the earth surrounded by dollar signs

New Football Form Guide

We have added a 4 game form guide to every prediction!

You will need to expand the prediction using the green plus button to see it. It will look like this:

 

From Guide for every team in our 35 football leagues

Knowing the last 4 games performance or each team is crucial knowledge before making a bet. Of course Football in Cider has probably used this information itself to make the prediction, but it is always good to have the knowledge yourself.

Position is the position in the 4 games table, not the overall published table. Same with points.

We hope this helps. Please post any feedback on the our Facebook page.

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