## Ha! You Think You Can Outsmart The Bookies Do You... Football in Cider.

That's not important.

What is important is the odds they offer and the fact that they sometimes have to change these odds away from the probability in order to balance their books. This is where Football in Cider makes money by using Top Tips

## Bookies Balancing Their Books? Please Explain....

An example is a good way to explain this:

Imagine you are the bookies. You are tossing a coin which has a 50/50 chance of heads or tails. You are offering odds of 1.8 for either outcome. If everything goes as normal lets say you get 100 $1 bets on heads and 100 $1 bets on tails.

This means regardless of the result your income will be $200 and your outgoing will be $180.

**You, as the bookie, make $20 whatever happens every time a coin is tossed!**

## Toss Them Coins Boyo!

Yes the bookies always win, and what we have just described above is a smashing example of how they go about it

However, this does give rise to an interesting situation......

Consider if Heads now has a lot of admirers. Heads, for whatever reason is in fashion. Every time someone got their change they drooled all over the King, Queen or whichever famous person was lucky enough to be minted on to the coinage. This love of heads eventuates to a massive 150 placing their $1 bills on heads and leaving only 50 backing tails.

## So What You're Saying is Their is a Disproportionate Allocation of Money

Exactly! And Congrats on the big words!.

So if the coin is tossed now and it is heads then the bookies stand to lose a decent sum of money!

Their income again was $200, but their outgoing is now 1.8 * 150 or $270. They make a loss of $70.

## So The Bookies Are Scared?

Being in a situation vulnerable to losing a large amount of money is not something any half decent bookie ever finds themselves in. A decent bookie can change things around so, whatever the result of the toss, they win

In order to get funds to cover the possibility of a heads result, the bookies need to attract more bets on tails. They do this by increasing the odds. Increasing the odds makes the bet on Tails more attractive to punters and so more bets are placed. The bookies will slowly increase their odds until they are in a situation similar to the original scenario. It may look something like this

Heads: Average Odds: 1.8 Bets: $150 Cost if True: $270

Tails: Average Odds: 2.1 Bets: $130 Cost if True: $273

Total Revenue: $280

Profit if Heads: $10

Profit if Tails: $7

**The bookie always wins again!!!!!**

## This is How You Get Rich Buddy! Toss Them Coins!

But look again, the bookie is offering 2.1 on a 50/50 chance!!!!!

Hoooray, you have struck gold! If you bet $1,000 on this bet 1,000 times you would spend a total of $1,000,000, but you would win back, on average, $1,050,000

That's $50,000 profit for the time it takes to toss 1,000 coins with an initial $1,000 stake. There's harder ways to earn so coin!

Note that you dont actually need a $1,000,000, but rather enough money to cover the initial losses if you lose the first few times. This is why we report on $10 bets as this is much more reasonable and means you can start with $50 or $100

## Football in Cider Top Tips!

Football in Cider detects scenarios similar to the above. It detects situations where the bookies have increased the odds beyond the probability of the event. Such predictions are called Top Tip Predictions. Top Tips do not have to be correct every time. Just like the coin example above which has a 50/50 chance of losing your stake, you still win in the long run.

If we keep making lots of bets where the odds are disproportionate to the probability, then in the long term we will make a tidy profit

Give the Top Tip Predictions a go and find out for yourself!