Ha! You Think You Can Outsmart The Bookies Do You... Football in Cider.

That's not important.

What is important is the odds they offer and the fact that they sometimes have to change these odds away from the probability in order to balance their books. This is where Football in Cider makes money by using Top Tips

Bookies Balancing Their Books? Please Explain....

An example is a good way to explain this:

Imagine you are the bookies. You are tossing a coin which has a 50/50 chance of heads or tails. You are offering odds of 1.8 for either outcome. If everything goes as normal lets say you get 100 $1 bets on heads and 100 $1 bets on tails.

This means regardless of the result your income will be $200 and your outgoing will be $180.

You, as the bookie, make $20 whatever happens every time a coin is tossed!

 

Toss Them Coins Boyo!

Yes the bookies always win, and what we have just described above is a smashing example of how they go about it

However, this does give rise to an interesting situation......

Consider if Heads now has a lot of admirers. Heads, for whatever reason is in fashion. Every time someone got their change they drooled all over the King, Queen or whichever famous person was lucky enough to be minted on to the coinage. This love of heads eventuates to a massive 150 placing their $1 bills on heads and leaving only 50 backing tails.

So What You're Saying is Their is a Disproportionate Allocation of Money

Exactly! And Congrats on the big words!.

So if the coin is tossed now and it is heads then the bookies stand to lose a decent sum of money!

Their income again was $200, but their outgoing is now 1.8 * 150 or $270. They make a loss of $70.

So The Bookies Are Scared?

Being in a situation vulnerable to losing a large amount of money is not something any half decent bookie ever finds themselves in. A decent bookie can change things around so, whatever the result of the toss, they win

In order to get funds to cover the possibility of a heads result, the bookies need to attract more bets on tails. They do this by increasing the odds. Increasing the odds makes the bet on Tails more attractive to punters and so more bets are placed. The bookies will slowly increase their odds until they are in a situation similar to the original scenario. It may look something like this

Heads: Average Odds: 1.8 Bets: $150 Cost if True: $270

Tails: Average Odds: 2.1 Bets: $130 Cost if True: $273

Total Revenue: $280

Profit if Heads: $10

Profit if Tails: $7

The bookie always wins again!!!!!

 

This is How You Get Rich Buddy! Toss Them Coins!

But look again, the bookie is offering 2.1 on a 50/50 chance!!!!!

Hoooray, you have struck gold! If you bet $1,000 on this bet 1,000 times you would spend a total of $1,000,000, but you would win back, on average, $1,050,000

That's $50,000 profit for the time it takes to toss 1,000 coins with an initial $1,000 stake. There's harder ways to earn so coin!

Note that you dont actually need a $1,000,000, but rather enough money to cover the initial losses if you lose the first few times. This is why we report on $10 bets as this is much more reasonable and means you can start with $50 or $100

Football in Cider Top Tips!

Football in Cider detects scenarios similar to the above. It detects situations where the bookies have increased the odds beyond the probability of the event. Such predictions are called Top Tip Predictions. Top Tips do not have to be correct every time. Just like the coin example above which has a 50/50 chance of losing your stake, you still win in the long run.

If we keep making lots of bets where the odds are disproportionate to the probability, then in the long term we will make a tidy profit

Give the Top Tip Predictions a go and find out for yourself!

Follow these 2 simple steps.


Step 1: Sign up to an online betting agency:

Use one of the Bookmakers Special Offers


Step 2: Bet on Football in Cider Top Tips

Using your new betting agency, place small bets on all the Top Tip Predictions


How Does This Work?

Football in Cider Top Tip Predictions are selected because the odds offered by the bookies are considered to be favourable and disproportionate to the probability of the result. This is explained in the easy to read Bookies Balancing Books article


No Seriously, How Does This Work?

Football in Cider has an algorithm that recognises patterns by using a neural network. For each game it gives a predicted result and a probability that the result will eventuate. This probability is then compared against the odds being offered by the major bookies. If the odds are greater than the probability then the predicted result is tagged as a Top Tip. Seriously read Bookies Balancing Books

What this means is that whilst not all Top Tip Predictions will be correct (we get about 50% of them correct) the returns on the correct Top Tips should be greater than the total of all the Top Tip stakes.

We keep a tab on how true this is by displaying the figures on our Home Page.


Who Can Make Money?

This site is for over 18's only. It is also only about having fun. Please do not bet money you can not afford to lose. Enjoy!


Are There Any Guarantees?

No! Certainly not. However Football in Cider discloses all past predictions and how they performed financially. A summary can been seen on our Home Page. This figure is automatically updated after every Top Tip Game. It should be noted that past performance does not guarantee future performance.


Gamble Responsibly

Responsible gambling occurs in an environment where people make informed and rational decisions about their participation in gambling based on their own individual circumstances.


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FA Cup Predictions

The FA Cup weekend represents a new and different type of game for Football in Cider to master. A potentially difficult challenge is that teams from different leagues play one another. We ourselves were keen to observe how the predictions would perform especially for one game in particular: An in form league 1 team versus an out of form premier team.

 

football in Cider make profit again

 

We are of course talking about this weeks onlyTop Tip FA Cup match: Millwall vs Bournemouth. 

Suprisingly, Millwall were tipped to win. Before the game this appeared as an anomaly, and with only one FA Cup game making the Top Tips, it could easily be argued to be one. 

As the results flowed in, it soon became apparent that this tip was spot on! Wow!!!! Who else got this correct? Not too many pundits we suspect.

At odds of 4.2 it was this weeks best return and helped the Top Tips maintain profitability at a welcome 2%.

 

Millwall Bournemouth

 

European Games

In contracts to the outrageously busy Christmas fixture list for Englidh teams the majority of the European Leagues had a well deserved siesta. However with the new year gaining pace many teams were back in action. Eibar hosted Atletico Madrid and again Football in Cider suprised many by tipping Eibar. With odds of over 5 it was clearly an optimistic prediction and in Contract to the Milwall game proved to be somewhat off the mark. It looks like Atletico fortunes are changing and we look forward to predictions reflecting their promising chnage of form.

 

League 1

Back at home, in league 1, Bristol Rovers hosted Northamption in what appeared to be an unpredictable game. Football in Cider selcted it has a Top Tip at 1.9 and it becames only the second correct prediction for the week. The game itself was easily decided by 5 unanswered goals to Bristol. These are the games Football in Cider thrives on.

 

Football in Cider Remains Profit Making  

One can argue that only getting 2 games correct in 6 is equal to that of a Monkey. That is, it is, if predictions are made completelty randomly then 1 in 3 would be correct. However this simplified perspective is wrong for many reasons. The main point to highlight here, however is that Football in Cider Top Tips are selected becuase they have favourable odds versus the probablity with a purpose of making money rather than getting every prediction correct. With a 2% profit this objective was achieved. Just.

 

 FA Cup 2 percent Profit

 

 

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