Football in Cider Performance Review
It’s our birthday and this year our present is a big fat whopping cheque for $279.92. Thanks FiC!
$279.92 is the profit return on our original $16.50 we put down in January 2017 on our Top Tips fund which has now grown by over 1,500%.
We consider this a success.
Football in Cider Values Integrity Above All
At FiC, we value integrity above all so all our bets are published and can be found here. Note, this is a link to the All Time report, it wil be different to the image above as it will include the latest bets which have happened since this screenshot. Below is a 2017 Football Top Tips Winnings Report which will remain unchanged.
Over the past year we have had tens of comments and much feedback. Yes, we even made the odd mistake and lost a bet once (or twice, but these were winning bets I might add!!). However overall we have received the most positive and encouraging feedback from many of you and we thank you so much for this. At the end of the day we are running a free site that serves as an experiment in artificial intelligence so it is a bonus when we make a few quid, and an even bigger bonus when we get so kind feedback.
We do have many other metrics to illustrate our performance, some of which we thought would be good to highlight, seeing as we are now officially one year old!
Top Tips Performace Over Various Other Time Frames
As you can hopefully see in the screenshot above, the menu bar displays options for
- Top Tip profit for 7 Days
- Current season (which is 2018)
- All (this is what we used in the introduction).
So let’s take a quick look at each of these in turn:
Top Tips Performace For 2017
In the screenshot below we can see a profit figure of $319.02 for the year 2017 for Top Tips.
The 2017 Football Top Tips Winnings Report covers bets made from 14/1/2017 to 20/7/2017. We only started Top Tips on the 14/1/2017 so hence the start date.
2017 was a hugely successful year. We made a profit of $319.02 from just $16.50.
There were rough patches of course, but there were also big wins, the Toronto FC II v Ottawa Fury game with odds of 3.5 a notable example.
Let's just stop and take note for a second: For a new betting system to publish tips at 3.5 to the public, that has no human intervention, takes courage. Obviously we were using the system prior to the publication of Football in Cider in October 2017, but when you have potentially over 4 billion people as your audience, you have to be ready to stand by your convictions.
And we did.
Our amazingly successful inaugural year for Football in Cider will remain as testimony to the little man for as long as the internet remains switched on. We are proud of our efforts and stunned by it’s success. We are also incredibly happy that we have been able to share this with you all, and again, thank you for your kind feedback
Current Season Top Tips Performance (or 2018 as it stands at time fo Writing)
So, was it beginner's luck? How are we currently doing?
In the screenshot below we can see a profit figure of -$62.30 for the Current Year for Top Tips.
Well the good news is that our integrity is there for all to see! The, ahem, not so good news is that we are not yet making a profit this year:
We have invested $98.40 and currently only have $36 left.
So were we lucky last year? It’s too early to tell.
One theory, well more than a theory - more a probable reason, is that our predictions use patterns from recent games. These patterns have been disturbed by the summer break, the transfer market and international breaks.
Last year we (deliberately) only started publishing tips after the Christmas break. At this point in the season patterns had most likely formed and become somewhat stable.
With it being only October, and currently in another international break already (arrggg !!!!!) we think our poor Football in Cider AI engine is struggling with ripple after ripple of crazy interference. Fortunately, we arent the only ones unhappy with international breaks, a recent survey by Talk Sport found nearly 70% of football fans prefer Champions League to international football. The are England fans, so I guess it's to be expected :-)
The good news is that from here on in stability rules. It will be interesting to see how our performance fare in the coming months and especially after Christmas. let’s hope things settle down sooner rather than later so we can all enjoy spending our winnings on some wonderful Christmas presents!
The last 7 Days Top Tips Performance
In the screenshot below we can see a profit figure of -$14 for the last 7 days of Top Tips.
Lastly for this section, the very short term 7 day results for Top Tips:
We show a short term loss of $14 but we are not going to take too much notice of this. If anything it is a much smaller loss than the longer term Current Season report displays which may show profitable changes to come (Are you buying that?). All in all, the 7 day report is there for weekly updates rather than overall performance analysis, so we’ll leave it at that.
Top Tip Performance Analysis Summary
Overall we have made a significant amount of money. From a $16.50 investment we now stand at a profit of $263.42.
The profit was gained all from the 2017 year and since then we have lost some ground in the summer break and in the early 2018 season.
Our expectations are that last years pattern of post christmas profits will continue in the future as teams settle into the new season with their new transfer signings.
Rugby Union, Rugby League, Basketball and AFL
We must not forget that Football in Cider covers the other codes of football, and basketball too!
So let’s have a quick look at the Top Tips profit summary since the start of our records until the present day for each of these :
Rugby League Top Tips Profit
In the screenshot below we can see a profit figure of -$3.90 for the year 2017 for Top Tips.
We made a small, almost insignificant, loss. On the positive side, during this period we would have fixed many issues and bugs that may have distorted the figures negatively, so cross fingers this time next year we will be back in the black.
AFL Top Tips Performance
In the screenshot below we can see a profit figure of $51.80 for the year 2017 for Top Tips.
Our AFL record is outstanding!!!!
This sport (AFL) is so overlooked from the rest of the world outside Australia (except Ireland). In Australia it originates from Victoria (Melbourne) but now has interest and coverage from West Australia, New South Wales, South Australian and Queensland. It is played by young and old and male and female and is popular as it allows everyone to be involved regardless of ability.
Back to our winnings, we made a 500% return in a few months. Why and how? Taking a quick look at list of bets in the diagram below we can see that towards the end of the season FiC obtained a 100% record on the last 9 games!
In the screenshot below we can see the latest Top Tips bets for AFL befiore the end of the 2017 season.
Only time will tell, but we hypothesise that AFL teams settle in fairly well and perform true to their ability. This means backing the favourite will probably pay dividends.
So how do the bookies make money if it is so predictable? Just have a look at an AFL fan. They are dedicated, committed die hards and would never back their team to lose. As wonderful as this is, it means we can make some money from their loyalty. Sorry AFL fans.
It is a great game to watch live though! There’s n o pulling back from pushes, shoves and the odd punch. Not at all like soccer when it comes to falling to the ground!
Rugby Union Top Tips Winnings
In the screenshot below we can see a profit figure of -$14.50 for the year 2017 for Top Tips.
As with League, Union made a small loss. We'll put this down to the teething issues we had. Let’s move on….
Basketball Top Tips Profit Analysis
Almost evens, but a small loss of $2.60
We are actually very impressed by this result. The algorithm we use is exactly the same for basketball as it is for football. So much so that some “draw” predictions keep peeking through much to the amusement of our American fans.
In the screenshot below we can see a profit figure of -$2.60 for the year 2017 for Top Tips.
Adding basketball to our list really was a actually a daring, and some may say “courageous” experiment. In reality, we should have tested this behind the scenes first to find out just how it would perform.
But we did not.
All we did was to simply added the names of the basketball teams to the algorithm, and let it go … Off it went. Off it went and soon it came back with some results.
Some results were draws! Which we were quickly and humorously told don't happen! So what did we do? Nothing.
Yep, we did nothing, and have still done nothing. In our opinion, if the AI engine wants to pick a drawn, let it.
And yet, we still broke even!!!
Conclusion of Top Tips Betting for 2017
A very successful first year with amazing profits to boast about.
Some small losses with other sports, but another year will prove these, hopefully, to be teething issues that our now solved.
Some ups and down with the football season. The downs appear to be after big changes such as the summer break, transfer windows and international breaks. Fortunately, these downs are considerably smaller than the ups resulting in significant gains over the year.
With large profits to report the next year has a lot to live up to. We look forward to it with high expectations and will see you all in a year's time.
Football in Cider.